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10 min · research

Make a claim–evidence matrix (simple table)

Goal: Split claims into a claim–evidence matrix that allows Unknown—pasted sources only; no invented analysis links.

Best for: Pre-meeting briefs, competitor reads, and any doc where someone will ask “says who?”

A matrix is not fancy analysis. It is a honesty device: empty evidence cells stay visible. Contested rows stay contested. Unknown stays Unknown—no fake links.

Why beginners skip this

Piling claims into paragraphs feels like research—without an evidence column, claims cannot stand. Build the matrix first.

Step 1 — Table-only prompt

Fill the matrix only from pasted real sources or notes—no memory fills; blanks stay [UNVERIFIED].

Build a markdown table with columns:
Claim | Evidence (link or short quote) | Tier (1–4) | Status (Supported / Contested / Unknown)
Rules:
- One claim per row
- No intro essay
- If I did not paste a source, write Unknown — do not invent URLs
- Tier uses my scale: 1 primary / official, 2 reputable secondary, 3 commentary, 4 rumor/social

Step 2 — Pricing-change drill

Example

Filled prompt

Make a claim–evidence matrix for these three claims about App Y. Use only sources I paste. Unknown allowed.
Claims:
1) “Stop opinions from posing as research by forcing”
2) “Stop opinions from posing as research by forcing”
3) “Stop opinions from posing as research by forcing”
Sources I paste:
- App Y pricing page screenshot text: Pro $12/mo → $15/mo effective Nov 1 (not double)
- Help center: export still listed on Free
- No official WAUs given

What good output looks like

  • Claim 1 Contested or Unsupported with the $12→$15 evidence
  • Claim 2 Supported or Contested based on help center
  • Claim 3 Unknown — no invented analytics link
  • Table pastes cleanly into the meeting doc

Step 3 — Use the matrix in the room

Bring the table, not a narrative. When someone pushes a rumor row, point at Status = Unknown. After the meeting, assign owners only to Contested/Unknown rows you still care about.

From this matrix, list only Contested + Unknown rows as a verify checklist with “Stop opinions from posing as research by forcing” Do not add new claims.
Example

Filled prompt

Live task this week (not a toy): apply this guide's Goal — Stop opinions from posing as research by forcing every claim into a table with evidence, source tier
Fill with your real artifact names/files. Constraints: no invented facts; label Unknowns; stop before send/delete/pay.
Return the working prompt + one pass/fail check I can mark in a minute.

What good output looks like

  • Five rows with grades Strong/Thin/Missing
  • Thin not argued into Strong
  • Missing stays Missing with Unknown
  • Every Strong has a link you can open

Empty cells are wins

A matrix full of Unverified is more honest than a matrix full of guessed links.

Do not bookmark-only

Finish Practice now, then tick this guide on your path. Titles unread are not skills.

Close the loop

Write one line: next time I pile claims with no matrix, I refuse to start the body.

Example

Filled prompt

Decision: postpone mobile launch two weeks?
5-row matrix: claim | evidence | Strong/Thin/Missing | link or Unknown.
Do not upgrade Thin.

What good output looks like

  • Claim pack lists sources for “Stop opinions from posing as research by forcing e”
  • Primary tab opened before share
  • Unknowns labeled; no vibe citations
  • Pass/fail: one primary URL saved

Red flag

Claims with blank evidence; memory fills—matrix rows only from pasted sources.

Save this card

Card: Force every claim to show evidence, source tier, and status—opinions are not research. Keep this beside the tool; read before you start.

Before you start

Open a blank claim pack. One claim about “Stop opinions from posing as research by” plus a slot for a primary URL. Chat citations are not enough. Guide: research-claim-evidence-matrix. Keep the real job visible the whole time; a blank box means stop and fetch the artifact first.

How to use this week

This week for a real topic build a claim | evidence | source-tier matrix; mark claims lacking evidence [to-verify].

Close the week by quoting aloud the refuse line you actually used once. If you cannot, rerun Practice now and date the pass/fail (Asia/Shanghai).

Pitfalls

PitfallFix
Asking for citations and trusting themYou paste sources; model only structures
Merging opinion into the Claim columnSplit “we think…” into a separate notes doc
Filling Unknown with “probably true”Leave Unknown; schedule a verify
Skipping tiersTier column makes rumor weight visible
Example

Filled prompt

Temptation: skip the habit for research-claim-evidence-matrix to save five minutes.
Job still: Stop opinions from posing as research by
Smallest correct pass: Done visible · checkable artifact · Unknowns [?].
Boundaries: draft only; no silent send; no invented metrics.
Return: artifact + refuse-line said aloud.

What good output looks like

  • Names the shortcut refused (specific to research-claim-evidence-matrix)
  • Still delivers checkable output for “Stop opinions from posing as research by”
  • Unknowns labeled; draft-only
  • Pass/fail: refuse-line dated (research-claim-evidence-matrix #4)

Practice now

Empty cell ban: no blank confidence cells at ship (Asia/Shanghai).

Disconfirm hunt: one row must try to disconfirm the claim (Asia/Shanghai).

Confidence cut: any cell marked low confidence is cut from the ship (Asia/Shanghai).

Matrix-live drill: fill one row claim|evidence|confidence on a live topic (Asia/Shanghai).

Matrix drill: one claim × evidence × confidence cell filled for a live topic (Asia/Shanghai).

Thin-spot drill: rewrite the Save card with real nouns from your work (repo, doc, inbox). Generic placeholders fail the drill.

Tonight for a real topic build a claim | evidence | source-tier matrix; mark claims lacking evidence [to-verify].

Floor: Asia/Shanghai refuse-line.

One sentence takeaway

Claim | evidence | source-tier matrix; mark gaps [to-verify].

Next

Source tiers · Fact-check social claims · 1-minute verify

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